On the Tibetan Plateau, where a whim of nature created the highest points on Earth, many of the world’s major rivers are born. Each day their flows bring life to more than a billion people downstream in Asia, the planet’s most populous region.

As we watch the headlines in an age of shifting water supplies, we may see a future filled with conflict and war over water resources, flows and quality.

Prayer flags and khatags, Tibetan ceremonial silk scarves, fly over the wide Yarlung Tsangpo River in central Tibet’s U-Tsang region. It is the highest major river in the world. Photo: Alison Domzalski

For example, we report today at Circle of Blue’s WaterNews the water-strategic importance of the Tibetan Plateau. It doesn’t take much to imagine the stress and potential for conflict downstream, particularly with China’s propensity for hydrological engineering.

However, flip the perspective 180 degrees and we may have seeds for some of the greatest collaborations and cooperative opportunities in history. This according to an essay by Karin Bencala and Dr. Geoffrey Dabelko published Tuesday in the Journal of International Affairs.

In the Middle East, for example, “Water and sanitation investments are pitched as providing peace dividends,” according to the essay, Water Wars: Obscuring Opportunities. Dabelko directs the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars Environmental Change and Security Program; Bencala is program assistant.

True, the planet’s water challenges are great, the situation grim. As Circle of Blue reported last year, drought and poor water management are spurring immigration to the United States from Mexican agrarian communities. Similarly, Inner Mongolian herders face desertification and relocation, and as glaciers retreat, Peruvian pastoralists are forced to move to the city with few urban survival skills. The health statistics are even more numbing: nearly 2 million children die each year from water-related diseases.

Write Bencala and Dabelko:

“Scholars from a variety of disciplines would likely argue the world is entering a level of water stress it has never previously experienced, driven by population growth, increased consumption of goods and resources and climate change. But it is less the absolute scarcity of water and more the rate of change in water availability that should raise concerns about future transboundary water conflict. Water stress alone is unlikely to lead to an international conflict, as all conflicts have multiple origins. Instead, most disputes occur when a unilateral action is taken, such as building a dam or diverting water, and when there is not sufficient institutional support or flexibility for conflict resolution or mitigation. Abrupt climate change or the sudden creation of new countries without developed patterns of water relations could also similarly occur at a rapid rate to which institutions cannot adapt.”

…

“While increased scarcity could lead to conflict, this scarcity also provides opportunities to shape a cooperative future. If addressed early on, issues of water scarcity and water use can bring parties together to jointly manage resources for purposes as diverse as water quality and hydroelectricity.”

In parallel, Bencala and Dabelko point out, water supplies and meteorological patterns can be indicators for potential conflict, and offer opportunities to generate proactive peacemaking.

According to analysis conducted in 2005 by Marc Levy, Charles Vorosmarty and Nils Petter Gleditsch: “…at the global scale, there is a highly significant relationship between rainfall deviations and the likelihood of outbreak of a high-intensity internal war. When rainfall is significantly below normal, the likelihood of conflict outbreak is significantly elevated.”

Dr. Vorosmarty and I co-presented the session on water at the Aspen Environment Forum in March. During our session, he noted with irony that as we face these great challenges, we are in many cases allowing our global water monitoring capabilities to decline. This becomes particularly notable as comprehensive monitoring and research could offer indicators — a kind of early warning system — for proactive response to potential hot spots, and turn them into peacemaking opportunities.

It’s precisely water’s unpredictablity — combined with the speed of political and environmental change, and the prevalence of bombastic commentary — that encourage quick judgments and poor investments, explain Bencala and Dabelko.

“Growing water scarcity and climate change-derived unpredictability may motivate countries to fight over water. Yet the world community would be wise to resist the dramatic headlines of water wars. Conditions are dire, but this disproportionate focus on states fighting over water gets in the way of understanding the complexities of conflict over water. It also obscures the positive opportunities presented by cooperation over water. Academic inquiries, policies and program designs that ignore these differentiations misdiagnose causes of conflicts, skew risk assessments and prescribe inappropriate means to address the problems.”

Is there hope? Bencala and Dabelko propose that we take proactive, collaborative approaches that avoid the pitfalls of bad policy and the 24-7 news cycle, which so often ignore long-term, slow-to-develop solutions.

“To move in a positive direction, politicians, advocates and the media need to stop predicting water wars and instead begin to call for water cooperation. International policy will follow, affecting how money is spent on the ground. As (U.N. Secretary General) Ban Ki-moon counseled at (the World Economic Forum in) Davos, “We need to adapt to this reality just as we do to climate change. There is still enough water for all of us, but only so long as we keep it clean, use it wisely, and share it fairly.”

That’s the rub. Politicians, advocates and the media — and most of us — are driven by crises, not slow fuses. China and Tibet may be in the hot seat, and most don’t predict an easy resolution to tension and strife anytime soon. Yet water management decisions on the Tibetan Plateau will affect billions of people for generations. China and Tibet are are not alone: any number of regions, from Israel to Mexico to the United States to Peru to Sub-Saharan Africa, are struggling with water scarcity. In each case, perhaps those dark clouds can bring a gentle rain and nurture the seeds of peace.

On March 22 we observed another World Water Day, and this week we marked the fifth anniversary of the military conflict in Iraq. Water and war are bound together by more than the coincidence of time — they are related by blood. Drought and Deluge are the weary parents of Desperation, Destruction and Despair.

Five years ago Mikhail Gorbachev, the former leader of the Soviet Union, put his heart forward on the podium as he addressed the media at the World Water Forum in Kyoto, Japan. Impassioned, he pleaded for the world to awaken from apathetic stupor and respond to one of the world’s greatest unfolding tragedies. The simple lack of safe drinking water, he said, condemned thousands of children to die each day — a needless, inexcusable tragedy. The drama of this appeal, coming from a man whose iron nation had rusted from within, spoke to the classic theme of the rise and fall of man. Only this man was determined to get up again and carry future generations on his shoulders.

I had a chance to interview Mr. Gorbachev at the forum, and I felt optimistic that his message was at last going to get some attention. The press corps seemed tuned in to a good story. But as he talked to me, I saw, out of the corner of my eye, that the video monitors in the halls were being tuned away from forum coverage and into CNN. The Iraq war had begun, and the flames of conflict drew all eyes away from the ticking time bomb of water. Mr. Gorbachev was whisked away to do commentary on the war, his attempt to save the world’s resources evaporating behind him.

I cannot know what was on his mind just then. I wonder, if like me, he suffered a deep pang of irony. We drop our gaze from water when violence burns us. And yet, if we are to conquer war, we must court water.

Jeffrey Sachs, Director of the Earth Institute at Columbia University and Special Advisor to United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon on the Millennium Development Goals, was a guest on NPR’s Diane Rehm Show this past Thursday. She asked him about water, which, she said, many have called the gold of the 21st century.

“If you look at where the violence in the world is right now” Professor Sachs said, “in the worst cases — places like Darfur, Sudan, like Somalia, like the Middle East, like Pakistan, Afganistan — these are all water-stressed regions. We call them Islamic fundamentalist regions. We should call them water-stressed regions. We should understand that these are places that are hungry, where livelihoods have been put in grave danger, where old, traditional ways of living such as pastoralist communities are under life and death threat. And we then blame religion or we blame militarism or we blame terrorism without understanding those are symptoms of a much deeper challenge, and water is at the center of it…And we’re already, in my opinion, seeing the resulting violence that can come from it. We send the army in response — we solve nothing. We spend tens or hundreds of billions of dollars. We need to send engineers, not the army. And it’s until we understand that the fundamental problems need to be addressed — not the symptoms — we’re going to continue to get it wrong, waste lives, waste our money and not find solutions.”

I think the engineers should have company. As Peter Gleick, founder of the Pacific Institute and a central advisor to our own journalism project, Circle of Blue, asserts, we have the technology. What we’re missing is the political will.

Political will comes from engaged citizens, and engaged citizens require information, motivation and inspiration. That’s where journalists come in, and we have real heroes when it comes to covering the world’s conflicts. The Iraq war, for example, has become the most dangerous war for reporters in history, according to Andrew Marshall, former Iraq Bureau Chief at Reuters.

“Covering the news in hostile places is a worthwhile thing,” Marshall says. “It can bring about change, it can inform the world. And it is worth us risking our lives.”

Marshall’s commentary introduces the new multimedia presentation, “Bearing Witness,” produced by Reuters and MediaStorm, the Emmy-winning online production company in New York. In “Bearing Witness,” we see, hear and feel the intensity of the conflict and horror of war. A father clutching his young, dead son, soldiers leaping from a burning military vehicle, mothers in gut-wrenching despair for their lost families.

Words alone can’t put the war and its reverberations into perspective. But MediaStorm and Reuters have pulled together, in one package, one of the most comprehensive, iconic multimedia and photojournalism presentations about the Iraq war. Its timeline is richly illustrated with captivating imagery that creates a visceral historical context. This is the kind of coverage that has brought scrutiny to the premise and practices of modern war.

This is the kind of coverage we need to focus on water and our other great challenges. And not just on the drama of tragedy, but also on the promise of opportunity. We have to bear witness and give water the global stage that eluded Mr. Gorbachev at that ill-fated forum. We have to connect water issues to our world affairs and, more crucially, our daily existence. If I might take a turn from Mr. Marshall, I am convinced that covering water extensively and deeply is a also worthwhile thing. It can bring about change. And it is worth us investing our lives.

I believe it can be done, starting with the courage and talent of journalists, and extending into the arts, sciences, education, culture and all the ways we as a society speak amongst ourselves. We can look farther and deeper into the roots of violence and show how very often water lies there. We can make the subtleties and complexities of a fundamental subject compelling, personal and comprehensible. We have the technology. We as communicators must summon the will.

The world water crisis is tapping on the world’s front door. Drought and Deluge’s children are already at home in so many places. Let us remember Mr. Gorbachev’s plea, and turn our conflicts into collaborations. And let us turn our attention to the young citizens of the world. Their future is ours to write.

See Related:
Water and Conflict Chronology

Last week at Circle of Blue we launched WaterNews, a daily update from the front lines of the world’s water crisis. This coverage is expanding to include additional comprehensive journalistic and scientific reports of this complicated, yet crucial story that’s touching everyone.

BY KEITH SCHNEIDER
Senior Editor, Circle of Blue
(reposted from Modeshift.org)

NEW YORK – This morning at the opening session of the Clinton Global Initiative, Lee Scott, Wal-Mart’s chief executive, explained to hundreds of international leaders why his corporate behemoth, one of the iconic companies of this age, has very quickly embraced environmental sensitivity and energy efficiency as a business strategy. It’s all about the benefits that occur when you “straighten the noodles,” he said.

Specifically, Mr. Scott described what happened when Wal-Mart asked executives at Betty Crocker, the makers of Hamburger Helper, to join its effort to be greener and more sustainable. Hamburger Helper responded, he said, by making its half moon noodles straight. That simple change, Mr. Scott said, reduced the size of Hamburger Helper packages, enabled more packages to fit into trucks, reduced substantially the number of truck shipments, saved energy, and reduced global warming gases. “It’s basic good business practices that ultimately cause the price to go down,” he said.

Well, how do you do. It’s not as though environmentalists and green economists, Paul Hawken in particular, haven’t noted the convergence of environmental and economic values for at least 35 years. Nor is it unusual for a chief executive of a company as notoriously ill-suited to advancing the public interest as Walmart to seek a green halo to improve their public image. But Mr. Scott’s focus on sustainable business practices appears genuine, and it’s due to the economic sense such a path makes to Wal-Mart. ”What has shocked us is that there are benefits far beyond what we imagined,” he said.

A second program of note today was Angelina Jolie’s appearance on behalf of global education for children of poverty. The Jolie-Pitt collaboration is well represented here. Earlier today Brad (see pix) anounced a $5 million commitment to build new housing in New Orleans. Then this afternoon Ms. Jolie (see pix)stepped to a podium at the New York Sheraton amid a strobe flash firestorm and explained the partnership she’s built during six years of globe trotting on behalf of the world’s refugee children. Her project, Children of Conflict, combines 18 organizations globally to educate children, including Nike and Microsoft.

I haven’t attended many news conferences featuring Entertainment Tonight superstar celebrities. I was impressed with Ms. Jolie’s intellect and poise. She has clear command of her subject, the result of a global travel schedule that Nicholas Kristof, the New York Times columnist, said today was more active than most UN Secretaries General. President Clinton today commended her work on an American initiative for childhood eduction. Her message was straightforward. “Just a few hours of spending in Iraq would send 150,000 children to school,” she said. “We have to get our priorities in order.”

Sallai Meridor, Israel’s ambassador to the U.S., was waiting quietly to board his flight to Aspen. I introduced myself and he knowingly smiled when I said I’d be leading a session about water at the Aspen Ideas Festival. “I grew up thinking about water,” he replied, his voice revealing an intimacy with water tracing back to childhood. It’s hard to have a long conversation about Israel without talking about the chronic water shortages of the region, and about the interrelated opportunities for conflict or cooperation. Even though water is fundamental to survival and that most of us in the United States have plenty of clean water to drink, how can we make thinking about water — in the most global, unified sense — as basic as drinking it? We’ll be sharing at least some of the answers here on Friday.