Global Rundown
- An annual report projecting key political pressure points for 2026 lists cross-boundary water disputes as a growing global concern.
- After heavy rains forced hundreds of evacuations across Albania, the country’s prime minister cited widespread plastic pollution for worsening the effects of flooding.
- For the first time in 25 years, no region in California is facing drought or dry conditions.
- Brazil’s major soy producers are withdrawing from an agreement to source the crop only from non-deforested lands, sparking concerns for the Amazon rainforest and waters.
The Lead
In its annual report projecting the world’s top political risks, the Eurasia Group has identified water scarcity and management, especially for cross-border waterways, as key threats this year.
Despite roughly two-thirds of the world’s freshwater sources flowing across national borders, a majority lack any framework or guidelines for resource sharing. This tenuous reality has come into sharper focus in the past year, including along the Nile River — where Ethiopia’s opening of its Grand Renaissance Dam now gives the country control over 90 percent of Egypt’s freshwater — and the Indus River — which supplies more than 80 percent of Pakistan’s agricultural water needs, and whose flows are managed by India. By summer 2026, according to the report, Morocco plans to finish construction of its Kheng Grou dam, which “would restrict water access to hundreds of thousands of Algerians in a key regional hub.” And in Tehran, which sits on the cusp of a Day Zero scenario amid severe water shortages nationwide, hundreds of people have been killed in recent days during widespread protests against the regime.
Controlling and destroying water infrastructure is a tactic wielded increasingly in areas of unrest. The Pacific Institute reported this fall that water-related violence reached record highs in 2024, especially in Ukraine, Russia, and Palestine. The Eurasia Group spotlights West Africa as another hotspot for the weaponization of water, particularly by armed groups and extremist factions in Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso. Climate change-induced drought has exacerbated water insecurity in the Lake Chad basin, which is relied upon by more than 50 million people in Chad, Cameroon, Niger, and Nigeria. Fluctuating water levels and rising temperatures on the lake threaten drastic economic, environmental, and cultural changes.
Recent WaterNews from Circle of Blue
- Combatting Agricultural Pollution: Michigan’s New Manure Management Rules — State takes critical new steps to limit major source of water pollution.
- Trump Is Desperate to End Era of Land, Water, Wildlife Protections — A half-century of resource conservation progress is in peril.
This Week’s Top Water Stories, Told In Numbers
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People, as of writing, who have been evacuated across Albania after heavy rains unleashed landslides and flooding in Durres County, near the country’s western coast, Albanian Daily News reports. At least one person has died, more than 5,000 homes have been damaged, and both power and water access were temporarily lost. Heavy snowfall and rainstorms continue to move west, ravaging Kosovo, Croatia, and Bosnia.
Speaking this week on his podcast, Edi Rama, Albania’s prime minister, blamed human-caused pollution for worsening the effects of flooding.
“The human factor has its weight. I honestly cannot understand the extreme recklessness toward nature that we, as a people, display constantly,” Rama said. “The staggering volumes of plastic carried by rivers in such cases are frightening, disgusting, and criminal. We will move forward with new measures against this darkness in our collective mindset, increasing efforts in awareness, information, and also punishment.”
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Regions in California that are “abnormally dry” or in drought, the first time such conditions have been measured across the state since December 2000, the Los Angeles Times reports. Of California’s 17 major reservoirs, 14 are sitting more than 70 percent full.
Since October, the state has received roughly 150 percent of its average precipitation this time of year — an excess that could prove important in the following months. A La Niña weather pattern, which typically brings drier conditions, is expected.
Image: U.S. Drought Monitor
On the Radar
Since 2006, the Amazon’s largest soy companies have operated in accordance with the so-called “soy moratorium” — an agreement with the Brazilian government not to buy crops grown on deforested land. The moratorium was effective, with deforestation in the world’s largest rainforest falling by 69 percent between 2009 and 2022 in monitored municipalities, according to Greenpeace Brazil.
This week, the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries, the body representing the world’s largest soy traders, announced the agreement would end. Environmentalists, scientists, and local communities have expressed concerns that the move could trigger an increase in forest loss, which is known to subsequently degrade the health of rivers and alter the biome’s water table by making drought more likely.
Wetland Watch
Kigali Wetlands: The 40 inches of rain that fall each year on Kigali — the capital of Rwanda and home to 1.7 million people — is increasingly arriving in concentrated bursts as weather patterns shift. Flooding has been a significant issue, with pollutants spreading into waterways and property suffering millions of dollars in damages annually. To mitigate these unwanted effects, the capital has invested significantly in nature-based solutions: restoring roughly 18,000 acres of formerly degraded wetlands by 2050, Yale Environment 360 reports.
One of the major challenges to the effort is the sacrifice of farmland. Kigali is one of Africa’s fastest-growing capitals, and more than 14,000 farming households could lose access to agricultural land as a result of these restoration projects. “How do you allow people to use these areas while also retaining the environmental integrity?” Alan Dixon, a professor of sustainable development at the University of Worcester, told the outlet.
