Federal Water Tap, April 13, 2026: Water, Weather Data Points to Difficult Year for American West

The Rundown

• Cybersecurity agencies warn utilities of Iranian cyberattacks against water and energy infrastructure.

• EPA proposes weakening coal ash regulations that prevent toxic metals from contaminating groundwater.

• NOAA forecast indicates a one-in-four chance of a “very strong” El Niño by the end of the year.

• Colorado River water supply forecast worsens yet again after record-shattering March heat.

• Reclamation announces water cuts for junior rights holders in Washington’s Yakima Valley, a highly productive farm region.

• The pipeline that delivers water to the Grand Canyon’s South Rim broke again, prompting water restrictions.

• Congress will hold hearings this week on Great Lakes restoration, Reclamation’s budget request.

And lastly, the interior secretary says a decision will come this month about Colorado River reservoir releases upstream of Lake Powell.

By the Numbers

22 Percent: Projected water inflow into Lake Powell this spring and summer, as a percent of median, according to a NOAA forecast.

52 Percent: Share of a full water allocation that will be available to junior water rights holders in Washington’s Yakima River basin this year due to a low snowpack, according to the Bureau of Reclamation. Junior holders have rights that were established after 1905. The Yakima basin is a highly productive agricultural area known for its apple orchards, vineyards, and hops. Senior rights holders will receive a full allocation.

News Briefs

Hack Attack
Federal cybersecurity agencies warned U.S. utilities and government agencies that Iranian-linked groups are attempting to hack into and disrupt critical infrastructure including water and energy systems.

These cyberattacks – persistent for years but recently intensified due to President Trump’s war against Iran – target internet-connected equipment that operates water, wastewater, and power systems.

Without providing details, the bulletin notes that hackers caused “operational disruption and financial loss.”

Federal agencies had previously posted warnings about the activities of the Iranian-linked CyberAv3ngers in 2023 and 2024. The group broke into the computer systems of the Aliquippa water authority, in Pennsylvania, in 2023. The attack, which targeted a booster station, did not disrupt service.

Groundwater at Risk from Coal Waste Proposal
In deference to electric utilities that burn coal, the EPA is proposing to weaken rules that protect groundwater from toxic metals in the waste from coal-fired power plants.

Coal ash is typically held in giant pits, which if unlined will leak arsenic, cadmium, mercury and other toxic metals into groundwater, rivers, and lakes.

“Flexibility” is a theme throughout the EPA’s proposal.

One major overhaul would be to allow site-by-site requirements that differ from national standards. More time would be granted to remove coal ash from waste pits for reuse. A volume limit on coal ash spread on land would be eliminated. Definitions of what counts as disposal and storage would be changed to “remove unnecessary burdens.”

Another provision would allow groundwater monitoring to take place a greater distance from the ash pits, some 150 meters.

The agency is already planning its legal defense, allowing the rule to be “severable,” meaning that invalidating one provision does not sink the entire thing.

According to industry estimates, U.S. coal plants produced about 63 million tons of coal ash in 2024.

Public comments on the proposal are being accepted through June 12. Submit them via www.regulations.gov using docket number EPA-HQ-OLEM-2020-0107.

Studies and Reports

Colorado River Forecast Worsens Again
The unraveling continues.

Thanks to record-smashing heat in March, the monthly water supply outlook for the Colorado River basin has worsened yet again. The amount of water projected to flow into Lake Powell this summer will be near a record low, according to NOAA’s Colorado Basin River Forecast Center.

The median scenario is for the third-lowest runoff on record, just 22 percent of normal. But if hot and dry weather persists, an all-time low is likely.

“The probability of record-low April through July runoff volumes has increased from a month ago just due to that extremely dry March and that huge snowmelt event,” said Cody Moser of the river forecast center.

Last month was horrid. March precipitation in the basin above Lake Powell was just 28 percent of normal. Water held in the snowpack above Lake Powell dropped from 52 percent of normal on March 1 to 23 percent of normal a month later.

“If the future weather was to turn dry and stay dry, we would expect the water supply guidance to continue to decline, as it has been doing since January 1,” Moser said.

A recording of the forecast presentation can be found here.

Hot and Dry
Last month was the warmest March in the 132-year historical record for the Lower 48 states, NOAA reports. The extreme heat event in the Southwest – temperatures never seen before in March by a wide margin and fueled by extra carbon in the atmosphere – was the primary factor.

Not only has it been warm. It’s also been extremely dry. The first three months of the year were the driest for that period on record for the Lower 48. The result is high fire risk in the Southeast right now and water supply risks going into the summer in the Southwest.

Oh Baby!
El Niño, the periodic sloshing of warm water in the eastern Pacific that influences global weather, is coming – perhaps in a big way.

El Niño, which is associated with more heat, is likely to develop this summer and last through the winter, according to a NOAA forecast update.

“The stronger the El Niño, the larger the impact to our global temperatures,” said Tom Di Liberto of Climate Central, a research group.

The risk of a bad outcome – a very strong El Niño – is unusually high. NOAA says there is a one-in-four chance.

El Niño usually peaks in the winter. To have a forecast this far in advance with odds of a very strong event as high as one-in-four is “a substantial signal” that we’re looking at a rare occurrence, Di Liberto said.

Besides heat, what else does El Niño bring to the U.S.? In general, wetter and colder winters in the southern half of the country and the opposite in the northern tier. Those are the odds, though. Actual outcomes may be different.

Globally, Central America tends to be hotter and drier. Same with Australia, especially in the eastern half. The Horn of Africa is the opposite: wetter than normal in the late fall and early winter.

On the Radar

Great Lakes Senate Hearing
On April 15, the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works will hold a hearing on Great Lakes environmental restoration projects.

Reclamation Budget Hearing
On April 16, a House Appropriations subcommittee will hold a hearing on the fiscal year 2027 budget request for the Army Corps and Bureau of Reclamation.

More Grand Canyon Water Woes
The 12.5-mile water line that serves the Grand Canyon’s South Rim broke again, prompting water restrictions and reduced lodging options starting April 11.

A $208 million replacement water system has been under construction since 2023 and is expected to be completed next year.

Federal Water Tap is a weekly digest spotting trends in U.S. government water policy. To get more water news, follow Circle of Blue on Twitter and sign up for our newsletter.