The Rundown
- EPA puts microplastics on a draft list of contaminants for potential future regulation in drinking water.
- GAO reports on home insurance premiums rising due to natural hazards.
- Federal drought program will hold a briefing this week on western water supply outlook.
- USDA survey shows that farmers expect to plant less corn and more soybeans this year.
- USGS develops a tool to forecast low streamflows nationwide.
- USDA and BLM revise their environmental review procedures.
- Federal hurricane center assesses its 2025 forecasts.
And lastly, a warm, dry winter is increasing fire risk in the Southeast, Southwest, and High Plains.
“Overall, given the expected drought conditions, state of fuels, and potential for active weather, the [Southwest] should be prepared for increased and above-normal potential for significant fires over the next three months.” – Excerpt from the National Interagency Fire Center’s seasonal fire outlook. The region witnessed a record-smashing heat event in March that pushed temperatures above 100 F in the Phoenix area. In New Mexico’s forests, dead trees, dry fuels, and lack of vegetation breaks add to the fire danger.
In context: In New Mexico, Partners Collaborate to End Siege from Megafires
By the Numbers
3 Percent: Expected decrease in acres of corn planted this season, according to a U.S. Department of Agriculture survey. Last year was a record high for corn acres planted. Soybean plantings are expected to increase 4 percent.
News Briefs
Microplastics Spotlight
Microplastics are one of 88 unregulated contaminants that the EPA is proposing to evaluate in public drinking water supplies for potential future regulation.
This is the first time microplastics have been placed on the Contaminant Candidate List, or CCL. The EPA is required to update the CCL every five years. It is the first step in the long process to regulate drinking water contaminants.
Other proposed entrants in the CCL include the industrial chemicals 1,4-dioxane and bisphenol A, and the pesticide dicamba, as well as certain disinfection byproducts and PFAS. The list also boasts nine microbial contaminants, including Legionella, the nation’s deadliest drinking water contaminant.
For microplastics, the agency notes “significant data gaps” in understanding their health risks. These range from basic health impact research to sources and detection methods.
Once finalized, the CCL becomes a guidepost. No more than 30 of the contaminants will be selected for increased monitoring. A subset of drinking water utilities will test their supplies for those contaminants. Once the occurrence data has been gathered, the EPA will decide whether to regulate at least five contaminants in drinking water. That decision is based, in part, on how frequently those contaminants are detected and at what concentrations.
There is outside pressure on the EPA to include microplastics in the monitoring program. Seven governors petitioned the agency to do so, according to Food and Water Watch.
The EPA made its regulatory determinations for the previous CCL last month. The agency decided not to regulate any new contaminants from the list.
Public comments are being accepted through June 5. Submit them via www.regulations.gov using docket number EPA-HQ-OW-2022-0946.
In context: America’s Deadliest Waterborne Disease Is Not Letting Up
USDA Environmental Review
The U.S. Department of Agriculture joined other federal agencies in finalizing an overhaul of its environmental review procedures.
The Trump administration, in response to court decisions and congressional action, ended centralized oversight of the National Environmental Policy Act, or NEPA, the law that requires environmental review of major federal actions.
Agencies now have the discretion to implement NEPA as they see fit. USDA notes that individual officials will have much authority on initiating environmental review, based on whether a proposed action affects critical aquifers, drinking water sources, floodplains, or wildlife habitat.
BLM Forest Management
The Bureau of Land Management also revised its NEPA procedures related to forest management. Tree thinning and cutting now does not need an environmental review if the actions occur on less than 5,000 acres.
The previous “categorical exclusion” limited tree cutting without review to 70 acres or fewer.
The administration justified the change by saying more tools are needed to reduce wildfire risk.
Studies and Reports
Early Fire Season Outlook
A warm, dry winter means higher than normal fire risk in the coming months.
The National Interagency Fire Center issued its four-month outlook, which shows fire risk shifting regionally as spring moves into summer.
In April and May, high fire risk is centered on the Southeast, which has been abnormally dry, as well as the southern High Plains and the Southwest.
By June and July, risk moves northward – into eastern Oregon and Washington, northern California and all of Utah and the Colorado Rockies. There is also a pocket of risk in eastern Texas and Louisiana.
2026 is already an active fire year. By the end of March some 1.6 million acres had burned, more than double the 10-year average. Much of the total is due to the Morrill Fire, which burned more than 600,000 acres in the Nebraska Panhandle in 48 hours.
Natural Disasters Increase Home Insurance Costs
Home insurance premiums between 2019 and 2024 rose the highest in coastal North Carolina and coastal Texas, according to a Government Accountability Office analysis. Premiums increased by 50 percent or more in many of those counties.
Natural hazards like hurricanes, wildfire, and wind are behind the increases, the GAO reports. These same hazards are resulting in insurance companies dropping coverage.
The highest shares of state-backed policies, a last-resort option when private insurance won’t cover a home, are in Florida, Louisiana, Massachusetts, and North Carolina.
How Accurate Were the 2025 Hurricane Forecasts?
Quite accurate, it turns out.
The National Hurricane Center, a division of NOAA, assesses its forecasting performance each year. Its report on the 2025 hurricane season revealed two trends.
One is for Atlantic hurricane tracks. The models were “exceptional” in forecasting the path the storms would take, the assessment found. Errors were smaller than the five-year average and show long-term improvement.
The other trend is the relative difficulty in forecasting storm intensity. Here the models were less accurate. The challenge is that storms are rapidly gaining strength due to hotter air and waters, both factors related to a warming climate.
Though 2025 was more challenging for intensity forecasting, the report notes substantial long-term improvement in capability. And that the forecasts were slightly more accurate than the models.
The NHC issues forecasts for storms in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific. The forecasts are published every six hours for lead times as much as five days. 2025 was the first year the NHC incorporated AI models into its work.
On the Radar
Western Snow Drought Briefing
NIDIS, an interagency drought monitoring program, will hold a public virtual briefing on April 7 to discuss snowpack conditions and the water supply outlook for the Intermountain West, which includes the southern Rockies and Arizona.
Drought Forecasting
The U.S. Geological Survey has developed a tool that uses machine learning to forecast when rivers will drop to critical levels.
Forecasts are available for more than 3,000 stream gauge locations nationwide.
The model takes into account groundwater, precipitation, soil moisture, and snowpack to estimate streamflow changes over a 13-week period. The highest accuracy is in the first four-to-six weeks.
Federal Water Tap is a weekly digest spotting trends in U.S. government water policy. To get more water news, follow Circle of Blue on Twitter and sign up for our newsletter.
